South African Life Insurers Q1 and 9 month trading update previews: Discovery and Sanlam best placed to defend VNB margins

研报英文原文证据摘录

South African Life Insurers Q1 and 9 month trading update previews: Discovery and Sanlam best placed to defend VNB margins

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

15 May 2026

South African Life Insurers

Q1 and 9 month trading update previews: Discovery

and Sanlam best placed to defend VNB margins

South African life insurers are set to report trading updates over the next two weeks CEEMEA Financials

ACwhich will focus on new business volumes and selective commentary on operating Baron Nkomo

earnings, starting with Old Mutual (OW) on 20th May, Sanlam (N) on 21st May and (27-11) 507-0385

Momentum (N) on 1st June. Discovery (OW) typically does not provide quarterly baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

updates, though peers provide a read-across. As highlighted in our half-yearly J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

market share monitor, the key 2025 sector signal was that volumes held up better Pooja Ruia

than value: industry life insurance new business APE sales grew +7% YoY in (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

2H25, but VNB stayed under pressure as mix continued to rotate away from J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

high‑margin guaranteed annuities toward living/market‑linked annuities and

platform flows (volume supportive, value dilutive). Into Q1, we expect new

business volumes to remain fairly resilient across the sector, but for VNB margins

to stay under pressure—most notably at Momentum and Old Mutual, where mix,

cost and persistency dynamics remain key constraints. Sanlam may add a short

comment on operating profit. We expect the underlying trend to be solid, although

the headline narrative could remain clouded by corporate actions and market

moves—features that have defined (and, in our view, often been misunderstood in)