APAC Equity Research  Watching the ships roll in: Chokepoints contained, cost pressure not

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APAC Equity Research Watching the ships roll in: Chokepoints contained, cost pressure not

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026

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APAC Equity Research

Watching the ships roll in: Chokepoints contained, cost

pressure not

One month since our initial assessment, the impact from the situation in the Middle APAC Equity Research Team

ACEast has evolved from a supply shock to a cost shock. Government interventions have Aditya Srinath

stabilised physical availability across select commodities and markets, but rising (65) 6882-7138

input costs are now propagating through the entire supply chain—from upstream aditya.srinath@jpmorgan.com

feedstocks to end-market consumer goods. Margin pressure is the dominant risk for J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

Q2–Q3 2026 earnings. The sectors facing the greatest margin sensitivity include Hannah L Lee AC

Taiwan refiners/chemicals and Chinese airlines, while container shipping and tankers (852) 2800-8886

hannah.l.lee@jpmorgan.com

with scale, pricing power, and supply discipline remain better positioned. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

• Supply contained, but cost pressure intensifying — pass-through ability

now the key differentiator: Regional governments have acted decisively to

prevent physical shortages from becoming systemic, e.g.: the naptha export

bank in Korea, Japan's SPR release, Taiwan's guaranteed LNG procurement

The authors acknowledge the