Thai Life Insurance First Take: Life sales normalisation in 1Q26; Steady fundamentals offer a buying opportunity

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thai Life Insurance First Take: Life sales normalisation in 1Q26; Steady fundamentals offer a buying opportunity

MW Kim AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8517 14 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

mw.kim@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Thai Life Insurance (Overweight; Price Target: Bt17.50)

Investment Thesis

Thai Life Insurance is the country’s second-largest local life insurer, with a 13% market

share in FY24 (based on gross written premiums). We believe the company has favorable

potential upside in terms of corporate value compounding supported by strong new life sales

growth, with predictable cash generation from old life policies under a solid balance sheet.

The co-payment scheme introduced in early 2025 among medical policies would largely

help to mitigate the surging medical claim risk and enhance the overall profitability of the

medical rider product. Monthly life premium sales could be a near-term catalyst, while we

believe the transition to IFRS-17 presents positive earnings revision upside, lower earnings

volatility and a solid profit growth opportunity forecast under the new accounting.

Valuation

We have adopted a P/EV valuation methodology as we believe that increased market

education on the new accounting and less volatile earnings over 2025 have reinforced the

stock’s defensive qualities. Hence, we use a 0.9x FY26E P/EV target multiple (vs. 1.0x

previously, reflecting strong new business growth and higher earnings momentum), that

incorporates a solid business growth trend and reserve book stability outlook - but also

accounts for a relatively higher sensitivity of NBV and EV to interest rate movements. Our

Dec-26 PT is Bt17.5. Stay OW.

2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

EVPS (Bt per share) 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.8

Target P/EV 0.9