J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 14 May 26 Retail Radar; TXRH; CAKE; USFD and More

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J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 14 May 26 Retail Radar; TXRH; CAKE; USFD and More

North America Equity Research

U.S. First to Market 14 May 2026

Top Stories

Retail Radar (Arun Jain/Shizuka Suga, CFA/Bhupinder Singh/Dubravko Lakos-Bujas)

May 13 - Software vs Semis Positioning

As we will be hosting our flagship NY Quantitative & AI Conference on May 19-20, there will be no edition of the Retail Radar

next week . If you are attending, we look forward to seeing you there in person.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (John Ivankoe) (TXRH, N, PT $188.00)

Execution-Driven Comps Persist; Easing Commodity Outlook Allows Focus On a Return to 17-18%

Targeted Margins

TXRH is up 14% from 1Q26 results (vs SPX up 1%) as company SSS was an impressive but as anticipated +7.1%, and

matched with continuing strong results of 6.5% through May 5. Beef-led COGS inflation was lowered down to a range of 6-7%

from 7% for F26 with many taking this marginal change as symbolic that the steak markets are entering a better phase of self-

correcting price-led supply/demand.

| The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (John Ivankoe) (CAKE, N, PT $68.00)

Steady Execution Amid Macro Headwinds – Experiences Matter. Better Risk/Reward Elsewhere but

Move to Neutral

1Q26/April comments highlight the importance of experience-oriented dining even if absolute price points can trend

high. SSS of +1.6% at the Cheesecake Factory (vs our +2.0%) came with a weak SSS of -2% North Italia (vs our -1%) but very

strong +10% at Flower Child (vs our +5.0%). Overall, CAKE’s brands continue to benefit from industry-low employee turnover

and lower than industry average supply growth in casual dining.

US Foods (John Ivankoe) (USFD, N, PT $90.00)

USFD Wins Share in a Weather- and Fuel-Hit 1Q; Keeps F26 Target Range Intact