普通外文研报
European Semiconductors: An Apple a Day for EU Semicaps? Quantifying the Intel Foundry Optionality
研报英文原文证据摘录
European Semiconductors: An Apple a Day for EU Semicaps? Quantifying the Intel Foundry Optionality
Exhibit 1: Base case scenario: Intel wins iPad/Mac processor business
We estimate this would represent a c€1.8bn revenue opportunity for ASML, c€600m revenue opportunity for ASM and 15 HB tools for BESI
Apple SoC unit demand (m)
Mac computers 25 m per year
IPads 55 m per year
Total 80 m per year
Wafer area 70,686 mm2
iPad SoC area (blended iPad/iPad Pro) 140 mm2
Number of iPad SoC per wafer 404 assuming 80% yield
Total number of wafers per year (k) 136
Mac SoC area (blended) 300 mm2
Number of Mac SoC per wafer 165 assuming 70% yield
Total number of wafers per year (k) 152
Total wafer demand per year (k) 288
Equivalent wafer starts per month (k) 24
Assumed EUV layers for A14 30
Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 124 Assuming 75% availability
Total EUV exposure per month (k) 719
Total EUV tools required 6
Total EUV CAPEX €m 1,380
Assumed ArFi layers for A14 50
Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 259 Assuming 90% availability
Total ArFi exposure per month (k) 1,199
Total ArFi tools required 5
Total ArFi CAPEX €m 425
Assumed DUV dry layers for A14 35
Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 389 Assuming 90% availability
Total DUV dry exposure per month (k) 839
Total DUV dry tools required 3
Total DUV dry CAPEX €m 39
Total litho CAPEX €m 1,844
Total WFE €m 7,376
Deposition €m 1,844
of which ALD 738 8-12% of WFE
of which Epi 295 3-5% of WFE
ASM market share
ALD 65%
Epi 30%
ASM revenue opportunity €m
ALD 479
Epi 89
Total 568
Hybrid bonding tools
Productivity per month (k) 1,080 1,500 units per hour
Bonding steps 2
Total Mac/Ipad SoC demand per month (k) 6,667
Number of tools needed 15 Assuming 85% availability
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
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