European Semiconductors: An Apple a Day for EU Semicaps? Quantifying the Intel Foundry Optionality

Research evidence excerpt

European Semiconductors: An Apple a Day for EU Semicaps? Quantifying the Intel Foundry Optionality

Exhibit 1: Base case scenario: Intel wins iPad/Mac processor business

We estimate this would represent a c€1.8bn revenue opportunity for ASML, c€600m revenue opportunity for ASM and 15 HB tools for BESI

Apple SoC unit demand (m)

Mac computers 25 m per year

IPads 55 m per year

Total 80 m per year

Wafer area 70,686 mm2

iPad SoC area (blended iPad/iPad Pro) 140 mm2

Number of iPad SoC per wafer 404 assuming 80% yield

Total number of wafers per year (k) 136

Mac SoC area (blended) 300 mm2

Number of Mac SoC per wafer 165 assuming 70% yield

Total number of wafers per year (k) 152

Total wafer demand per year (k) 288

Equivalent wafer starts per month (k) 24

Assumed EUV layers for A14 30

Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 124 Assuming 75% availability

Total EUV exposure per month (k) 719

Total EUV tools required 6

Total EUV CAPEX €m 1,380

Assumed ArFi layers for A14 50

Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 259 Assuming 90% availability

Total ArFi exposure per month (k) 1,199

Total ArFi tools required 5

Total ArFi CAPEX €m 425

Assumed DUV dry layers for A14 35

Estimated productivity (wafers per month) 389 Assuming 90% availability

Total DUV dry exposure per month (k) 839

Total DUV dry tools required 3

Total DUV dry CAPEX €m 39

Total litho CAPEX €m 1,844

Total WFE €m 7,376

Deposition €m 1,844

of which ALD 738 8-12% of WFE

of which Epi 295 3-5% of WFE

ASM market share

ALD 65%

Epi 30%

ASM revenue opportunity €m

ALD 479

Epi 89

Total 568

Hybrid bonding tools

Productivity per month (k) 1,080 1,500 units per hour

Bonding steps 2

Total Mac/Ipad SoC demand per month (k) 6,667

Number of tools needed 15 Assuming 85% availability

Source: BofA Global Research estimates