Molina Healthcare, Inc.: MOH I-Day – 2026: 2029 $25 EPS target could only be 50% of earnings power

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Molina Healthcare, Inc.: MOH I-Day – 2026: 2029 $25 EPS target could only be 50% of earnings power

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Molina Healthcare, Inc.

MOH I-Day – 2026: 2029 $25 EPS target

could only be 50% of earnings power

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 250.00 USD | Price: 185.94 USD

2029 EPS target of $25 feels very achievable with upside 11 May 2026

MOH initiated a 2029 EPS target of $25 which includes revenue increasing from $42B in Equity

2026 to $64B in 2029, MLR declining from 92.6% in 2026 to 91.5% in 2029, and PTI

Kevin Fischbeck, CFA

increasing from 0.8% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2029. While it did not officially lower its long- Research Analyst

term margin target, MOH is only targeting 2.5% by 2029 vs 4-5% previously as it waits BofAS +1 646 855 5948

for states to catch up to trend in Medicaid (only includes 90bp of the 300bp it estimates kevin.fischbeck@bofa.com

the industry is currently underfunded) to generate $25 in EPS. We came away from the Joanna Gajuk

investor day with the feeling that $25 is very achievable as it is relatively less reliant on Research Analyst BofAS

rate updates from states and more about operational execution and winning RFPs. If +1 646 855 3961

states do eventually return the Medicaid industry to 1.5% margins overall and MOH is joanna.gajuk@bofa.com

able to outperform by 300bp, it would imply its EPS power is close to double its $25 CraigResearchJonesAnalyst

EPS target. The guide is largely in line with how we model MOH and we note that our BofAS

+1 646 743 2020

2028 ests are 30% above consensus. We maintain Buy as we estimate Medicaid margins craig.jones3@bofa.com

have bottomed in 2026 and see relatively little execution risk on MOH’s ability to Joaquin Arriagada Martinez

achieve its $25 EPS target. Research Analyst

BofAS