AGCO Corp: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

AGCO Corp: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– AGCO-CorpAGCO(AGCO.N)Corp (AGCO.N)

Ag Pure-Play Faces A Steeper Climb

PRICE TARGET $108.00 UNDERWEIGHT THESIS

We apply a ~18x multiple to AGCO's 2026e earnings, multiple reflects below mid cycle Ag cycle downturn has been well

earnings and current market view discount telegraphed and understood by the market.

However, our optimism for AGCO shares is

$125.50 tempered by a relatively higher level of NA

Consensus Price Target Distribution $102.00 $152.00 inventory overhang compared to peers and a

MS PT steeper climb ahead for its Fendt market

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates share growth strategy (key pillar of growth).

As such, we see risk for AGCO to

underperform its earnings algorithm

RISK REWARD CHART expectations and peers.

USD Consensus Rating Distribution

$155.00$155.00(+31.32%)$155.00(+31.32%)(+31.32%) 27% Overweight

160 60% Equal-weight

13% Underweight

MS Rating

120 $118.03$118.03$118.03

$108.00$108.00(-8.50%)$108.00(-8.50%)(-8.50%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$87.00$87.00(-26.29%)$87.00(-26.29%)(-26.29%) Risk Reward Themes

Self-help: Positive

40 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE $155.00 BASE CASE $108.00 BEAR CASE $87.00

~18x Bull Case EPS of $8.60 ~18x Base Case 2026e EPS of $5.99 ~20x Bear Case 2025e EPS of $4.37

The Ag cycle rebounds better than expected Revenues increase by ~MSD% in 2026, as Ag markets stay further depressed as

in 2026 driven by farmer income we expect a recovery across regions except pressured crop prices weigh on farmer

improvement. Org. revenue growth N. America.