Banco de Chile: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Banco de Chile: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Banco de Chile (BCH.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

NIM (%) 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7

Loan Growth (YOY) (%) 0.8 8.0 6.8 6.8

Fee Income Growth (YOY) (%) 11.4 9.2 7.5 7.5

Total Revenue Growth (YOY) (%) (0.6) 6.3 8.5 6.8

Personnel & Administrative

0.1 3.4 4.0 4.0

Expenses Growth (YOY) (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Interest rates/margin resilience RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Loan growth & fee performance Stronger than expected economic growth 1,392 Asset quality evolution Credit margin expansion Net income

Rationalization/efficiency improvements Improvement in asset quality (US$, mm) 1,304 1,452

Contribution of non-banking business units Better than expect efficiency improvements 1,392

Growth of customer base

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EPS 2.76

2.56 2.99

Recession impacts delinquency & loan growth (US$) 2.81

Low rates pressure margins

100% Latin America Tougher competition

Execution of cost & revenue initiatives 22.5 ROE

Government interference 21.7 22.7 (%)

Global slowdown or trade tensions escalate 22.1

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

US rates, inflation & FX volatilityView explanation of regional hierarchies here

DPS

2.07 2.44

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (US$) 2.25

Inst. Owners, % Active 68.7%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.5x

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.9%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /