China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373.SZ)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Domestic revenue YoY (%) 10.2 3.1 10.0 10.0

Overseas revenue YoY (%) 5.6 2.5 10.0 10.0

Blended Gross Margin (%) 31.2 32.3 32.3 32.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Greater adoption of smart transportation RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Solid expansion in overseas markets Faster adoption of smart transportation in

China to drive growth Sales / 8,407.0

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Greater adoption of cloud in clients to Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

introduce new drivers (Rmb, mn) consensus data for this metric

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% Greater-than-expected expansion in overseas China and India

surveillance markets 0-10% Europe ex UK

0-10% India RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 993

EBITDA

Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying 0-10% Japan Lower R&D capability, further widening the gap (Rmb, mn)

consensus data for this metric 0-10% Latin America with the industry leaders

0-10% MEA Slower growth and narrower margins for

0-10% North America domestic surveillance products as

0-10% UK consolidation intensifies 691

60-70% Mainland China Net income

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (Rmb, mn) Note:consensusThere dataare notforsufficientthis metricbrokers supplying

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 2%

MS ALPHA MODELS Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research 0.4

EPS

1/5 3 Month (Rmb) Note:consensusThere dataare notforsufficientthis metricbrokers supplying

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is