Australia Banks: Budget Implications: End of the Housing Super-Cycle?

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Australia Banks: Budget Implications: End of the Housing Super-Cycle?

Idea

May 12, 2026 01:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Banks | Asia Pacific Richard E Wiles

Equity Analyst

Budget Implications: End of the Richard.Wiles@morganstanley.comSally Hong, CFA +61 2 9770-1537

Sally.Hong@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1698

Housing Super-Cycle?

Australia Banks

Asia Pacific

On balance, we believe new measures in the Federal Budget Industry View Cautious

create more downside risk for the banks' trading multiples.

Time for caution: We have a Cautious view on Australia Banks – we believe RBA

rate hikes, the Federal budget, and the global energy shock have caused a significant

shift in the banks' operating environment, increasing the risk of earnings

downgrades and a de-rating. Refer Time For Caution (23 Mar 2026). While the major

banks' TSR has underperformed the ASX by ~9ppt since mid-March, they are still

expensive at one-year forward P/E of ~19x or ~15.5x ex CBA (refer Exhibit 1 ).

Tough budget for the banks: On balance, we think new measures in today’s Federal

budget will be bad for bank share prices. While changes to negative gearing and CGT

discounting had been flagged, the minimum 30% tax rate on post-July 2027 capital

gains was unexpected. In our view, the budget will have a negative impact on

housing market sentiment and the mortgage market. This will more than offset any

increase in the appeal of high-yield stocks.

End of the housing super-cycle? In our view, favourable tax treatment is one of the

reasons why there has been a 30-year housing ‘super-cycle’ in Australia. However,

changes to property-related tax concessions could have a profound effect on the

long-term demand for investment properties. All else equal, less leverage and less