Monex Group: F3/26 Results: Mixed Positives and Negatives; We Expect Somewhat Negative Near-term Share Price Reaction

研报英文原文证据摘录

Monex Group: F3/26 Results: Mixed Positives and Negatives; We Expect Somewhat Negative Near-term Share Price Reaction

Update

May 12, 2026 11:38 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMonex Group (8698) | Japan Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Mixed Positives Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Monex Group (8698.T, 8698 JT)

Brokers & Other Financials | Japanand Negatives; We Expect

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥750Somewhat Negative Near-term Shr price, close (May 12, 2026) ¥675

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥171.2

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥2.0Share Price Reaction

Reaction to earnings

Weakens our thesis In-line Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Asset management business is growing; the securities business recorded one-off

costs but core operations remain stable.

Crypto asset business is weak; collaboration effects are a key focus.

F3/26 results overview: 1) Profit before tax (RP) ¥15.76bn (vs. a ¥3.85bn loss in the

previous year, our forecast ¥15.1bn). 2) Securities business: RP ¥11.72bn (YoY +9.4%).

4Q (three months) RP was –48.1% QoQ, reflecting costs related to certain clients’

futures and options trading at TradeStation. Equity-method investment income

from Monex Inc. (51% stake) was ¥1.982bn (full year). 3) Crypto asset business: pre-

tax loss of ¥539mn (vs. a ¥12.95bn loss in the previous year). 4Q (three months)

recorded a loss of ¥1.36bn (3Q RP ¥890mn), reflecting lower trading volume at the

exchange and the absence of IEO-related revenue booked in 3Q. 3) Asset

management and wealth management business: full-year RP ¥6.14bn (vs. ¥280mn in