Oshkosh Corp: Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Oshkosh Corp: Model Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Oshkosh Corp (OSK.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Access Equipment Revenue Growth 30 Jul 2026 - 03 (13.0) (1.4) 3.0 3.0 Q2 2026 Oshkosh Corp Earnings Release (%) Aug 2026

27 Oct 2026 -

Defense Revenue Growth (%) (3.8) 18.8 2.0 2.0 02 Nov 2026 Q3 2026 Oshkosh Corp Earnings Release

Vocational Revenue Growth (%) 12.6 7.4 5.0 5.0

Consolidated Adj. Operating Income

9.6 9.0 10.3 11.0

Margin (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Global Construction activity RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

State/Fed Government Vehicle Orders US Non-Resi and Resi construction spending

Rental Company Replacement Demand more material than expected Sales / 11,072

Rental company re-fleeting exceeds Revenue 10,551 12,062

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE expectations ($, mm) 10,979

NGDV ramps faster than anticipated

0-10% Europe ex UK AeroTech synergies exceed expectations

0-10% Latin America 1,220

0-10% Mainland China RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,082 1,496

($, mm)

0-10% UK US Non-Resi contracts sooner/more than 1,279

80-90% North America anticipated

NGDV disappoints and Defense contract losses

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 671

are more impactful Net incomeView explanation of regional hierarchies here 627 748

Vocational demand and AeroTech integration ($, mm)

miss expectations 702

MS ALPHA MODELS

10.70 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 3/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month 9.99 15.41

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon Inst. Owners, % Active 51.4% ($) 11.40

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored HF Sector Net Exposure 8.6% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates