Talabat 1Q26 First Take: Beat to consensus as GMV outperforms

研报英文原文证据摘录

Talabat 1Q26 First Take: Beat to consensus as GMV outperforms

Elena Jouronova, CFA AC CEEMEA Equity Research

(971) 4561-2010 12 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

elena.jouronova@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Talabat (Neutral; Price Target: Dh1.10)

Investment Thesis

Talabat is the leading food and grocery delivery platform in the Middle East. Talabat enjoys

unparalleled scale and healthy margins with its powerful network effect, which has

prompted Keeta to expand in its markets. After a stellar 27% y/y GMV growth in 2025 and

a 25% CAGR in 2023-25, alongside a 40bps expansion in EBITDA/GMV margin, Talabat

guided to an unimpressive outlook for consolidated GMV growth (11-14% y/y) despite a

substantial 140-180bps investment of margin and an incremental 20bps in capex. There is

a lack of clarity on the ROI of the planned investments, which reduces our conviction in the

earnings outlook beyond 2026, and our work suggests that the announced investments for

2026 do not seem significant enough for the core food vertical in GCC, where competition

has heated up; hence, we are no longer certain that 2026 will be the year of investment peak.

Whilst Talabat’s earnings and FCF multiples screen attractively compared to global food

delivery players, compared to the UAE-listed stocks its dividend yield (one of the core

valuation metrics for investors in this market) screens in line, underscoring that the stock

does not screen as cheaply vs the market it trades in. Our analysis suggests that in the context

of lower expected growth (JPMe 5% EBITDA CAGR in 2026-28E) and visibility, the

valuation looks fair. We rate the shares Neutral.

Valuation

We value Talabat using a DCF model with a 10-year horizon, 12.0% WACC and 3% terminal

growth rate. Our Dec-27 PT is AED1.1/sh.