Talabat delivers broad-based Q1 beat; FY26 net income guidance raised

研报英文原文证据摘录

Talabat delivers broad-based Q1 beat; FY26 net income guidance raised

May 12, 2026

Valuation

We value Talabat using a blend of our target multiple (70%) and upside target multiple

(30%) methodologies.

Risks

●New market entrants. We do not discount the likelihood of a more well-funded

global peers (such as Meituan already) launching a food delivery service in one

of Talabat’s core markets using aggressive discounting and marketing strategies to

quickly gain market share. However, we believe that Talabat’s entrenched market

position and vendor funding model can prevent large market share losses.

●tMart payback cycle slower than the 2019 analogue. Management is steering

investors toward the original tMart investment cycle as the template; a longer ramp

(slower frequency build, weaker basket economics, or higher dark-store unit costs)

would erode the offensive case for the FY26 spend and extend the margin-recovery

timeline into FY28+.

●Investment cycle extends into FY27 rather than annualising. Our model assumes

FY26 is peak spend with some margin recovery from FY27. If competitive intensity or

tMart capex requirements extend the investment phase, the EBITDA inflection slides

right and the FCF profile compresses further.

●Further DHER-related related-party transactions on terms unfavourable to

minorities. The Instashop transfer set the precedent. Additional asset transfers

or transfer-pricing reassessments unfavourable to Talabat would dilute minority

economics and compress the equity story irrespective of operating performance.

●FX and macro pressure across Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt. USD-reporting against

weakening regional currencies (particularly EGP) is a structural translation drag;

further EGP devaluation or oil-driven macro slowdown in GCC consumer spending