中国市场策略

AI research summary

J.P. Morgan's 13 November 2026 China equity strategy treats the 18-19 November APEC summit in Shenzhen and a likely third Trump-Xi meeting this year as a scenario-mapping exercise rather than a directional call. Four baskets are pre-screened: US-bound Chinese EV, storage and grid investment (BYD, CATL, Sungrow, Fuyao); C919 narrowbody supply-chain names should LEAP-1C engine approvals revert from case-by-case review to batch clearance (AECC Aviation Power, AVIC XAC, AVIC Jonhon); hog and poultry producers if soybeans enter the reciprocal tariff-cut list (Muyuan, Wens); and rare earths as a hedge against renewed friction (Northern Rare Earth, Xiamen Tungsten). The cleanest catalyst is extension of the truce beyond its 10 January 2027 expiry, or better, a commodity-specific deal. JPM reiterates a constructive CSI 300 view on 20% consensus forward EPS growth, ample interbank liquidity and visible state-fund buying, while flagging global liquidity tightening and a short two-month tariff pause window as the key uncertainties.

Bull case：JPM reiterates a constructive CSI 300 stance on 20% consensus 12-month forward EPS growth, ample interbank liquidity and increasingly visible state-fund buying; extension of the trade truce beyond the 10 January 2027 expiry, or a commodity-specific deal, are the two triggers that would lift A-share sentiment and expand CSI 300 forward P/E; each of the four scenario baskets maps to a specific, testable news trigger - a China-US outbound investment list, LEAP-1C batch approval, soybean tariff relief and rare-earth leverage; the barbell of AI infrastructure plus CXO/innovative drugs against high-yield dividend names balances offense and defense; policy balancing of equity issuance and buybacks should support the shareholder-return theme over coming quarters

Key risks：The 6 November vice-premier call produced no verifiable new progress and the two-month tariff pause leaves a short buffer before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry; the reported China-US outbound investment project list is media-sourced and unconfirmed by officials; LEAP-1C approvals have reportedly shifted to case-by-case review with 2-3 month cycles and annual caps, limiting near-term C919 upside; a 10% extra tariff on US soybeans still deters commercial crushers who have shifted to South American supply, so feed-cost relief may not materialise; global liquidity tightening is capping CSI 300 forward EPS, with CME FedWatch implying one and three further hikes by end-2026 and end-2027

Stocks：比亚迪(002594.SZ)、宁德时代(300750.SZ)、阳光电源(300274.SZ)、福耀玻璃(600660.SH)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)、航发动力(600893.SH)、中航西飞(000768.SZ)、中航光电(002179.SZ)、牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、北方稀土(600111.SH)、厦门钨业(600549.SH)、中国稀土(000831.SZ)、中矿资源(002738.SZ)

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