Misto Holdings (081660.KS): 3Q Miss + 2026 Annual Guidance Implies 4Q miss

AI research summary

Misto's 3Q26 operating profit missed consensus by 11%, with both the FILA/ex-Acushnet business and Acushnet underperforming. Although management maintained FY26 consolidated OP guidance, Misto business guidance was cut to flat-to-5% OP growth from 10-20%, and Citi now forecasts a W38bn 4Q operating loss versus consensus W3bn, implying further consensus downside. The raised three-year shareholder return target, to W550bn from W500bn, is the main positive and supports a 5.6% dividend yield. Citi lowered FY26-28 net profit by 8-12% and cut its target price to W47,000 from W54,000, based on SOTP: 7x FY27 P/E for the ex-Acushnet business and a holding-company discount for the Acushnet stake. At W37,550, the stock trades at 7.2x 2026E P/E and 0.9x P/B, offering 25.2% expected share price return and 30.8% total return. The main uncertainties are China/US business returns from 2027, Acushnet margin pressure, and FILA's reliance on the Disruptor line.

Bull case：3Q OP missed consensus by 11%, leaving 2026E P/E at 7.2x and P/B at 0.9x with a 5.6% dividend yield; The three-year shareholder return target was raised to W550bn from W500bn, supporting cash returns; Citi's W47,000 SOTP target implies 25.2% share price upside and 30.8% total return; Downside from a W38bn 4Q operating loss is partly reflected after FY26-28 NP cuts of 8-12%

Key risks：Maintained FY26 guidance still implies consensus downside as Citi models a W38bn 4Q operating loss versus consensus W3bn; Misto business OP guidance was cut to flat-to-5% growth on China rollout and PPA costs; Acushnet margins face higher IT and incentive expenses; FILA's turnaround remains dependent on the Disruptor product line; China/US return profiles and KRW assumptions could keep the valuation discounted

Stocks：Misto Holdings(081660.KS), Acushnet Holdings(GOLF.N)

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