Two things are still true at the same time: Highlights from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Macro Conference

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Strategic Research

16 September 2026

Two things are still true at the

same time

Highlights from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Macro

Conference

A central message was straightforward: duration pain coexisting alongside

equity gains, at least for now. This was a consistent theme among the 15 macro

and market speakers offering their views on the US outlook and Fed policy, AI

investment and productivity impact, as well as the implications of geopolitical

risks and the US midterm elections, a view that we have highlighted over the past

year (see Top 10 Macro Takeaways: 2025 IMF/World Bank Fall Meetings: Two

things can be true at the same time…but will it last?, 22 Oct 2025, Shaky Optimism:

Short-term tailwinds, long-term risks: Highlights from JPMorgan’s 2025 Global

Macro Conference, 24 Nov 2025, and Winner-Takes-All meets Multipolarity, 9

Sep). AI-led capex and resilient earnings remain the core equity support, while

deficits, issuance, and term premia keep upward pressure on long-end yields. The

mood stayed risk-on, and our investor survey suggests conviction remains high to

stay invested in the S&P 500 even as rates are biased higher.

Fed hikes are now the consensus, but a key structural shift is that comparisons

to prior hiking cycles are increasingly less informative as higher policy rates

are not transmitting to the US real economy with the same force as they

historically have. With AI, healthcare, and services now a larger and relatively

rate-insensitive share of growth and capex, the traditional interest-rate channel

looks materially less binding, and Fed policy changes are having less impact on

corporate behavior than in past cycles. Several speakers argued that the equitybreaking threshold for Treasury yields may therefore be meaningfully higher than

previously, potentially in the 5.5%-6.0% range, particularly as both the interestrate and oil-price channels appear less constraining for the corporate investment

cycle. At the same time, real yields are historically attractive, creating a clear

opportunity to invest in high-quality fixed income.

Separately, speakers emphasized that a higher term premium is structural

…