Brazil: Economic activity index fell again in July, as expected

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Economic Research

16 September 2026

Brazil

Economic activity index fell again in July, as expected

July economic activity index (IBC-Br) fell 0.2% m/m sa, in line with

expectations

EM, Economic and Policy Research

The indicator was down 1.2% 3m/3m saar in the three months through July,

with broad-based weakness

(55-11) 4950-3195

The IBC-Br and the nowcaster point to downside risks to our 1.2% q/q saar

growth estimate for 3Q

The final July activity release, the economic activity index (IBC-Br), confirmed

the weakness at the turn from 2Q to 3Q. As anticipated by us and the consensus,

the IBC-Br fell 0.2% m/m sa in July, following a 0.9% contraction in June (Figures

1 and 2). The July softness was broad-based: services were flat, while industry fell

0.4% and agriculture declined 1.2% m/m sa. In addition, all components of the

index have declined over the past three months (Table 1).

Overall, the IBC-Br is now running at -1.2% 3m/3m saar, the weakest result in

almost a year (Figure 3). This leaves the statistical carry-over of this indicator

tracking a near-3% decline in the quarter, implying that a recovery in August and

September would be needed to deliver our 1.2% q/q saar GDP growth expectation

for 3Q. The nowcaster, now running at -0.8%, also points to downside risks to our

3Q GDP estimate (Figure 4).

Figure 1: Economic activity index (IBC-Br)

%m/m, sa

IBC-Br

2.0

IBC-Br ex. agro

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.5

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.5

-0.1

-0.2

-1.0

-0.9

-1.5

Sep 25

Nov 25

Jan 26

Mar 26

May 26

Source: BCB and J.P. Morgan