Peru

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Economic Research

16 September 2026

Peru

Activity bounced back in July, aligning with firm

domestic demand

Activity increased 1.7%m/m, sa, in July (3.6%oya), rebounding after two

consecutive monthly contractions

Economic and Policy Research

3Q26 growth is fine tune to 5.0% q/q ar; 2026 annual GDP growth is

maintained at 2.8%y/y

(1-212) 834-4321

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

The sectoral breakdown continues to highlight two defining features: high

exposure to sector-specific shocks and domestic demand resilience

Juan Goldin

Our forecast considers a strong negative impact of El Niño

When adjusted for seasonality, economic activity rebounded in July after two

consecutive monthly contractions. Broad-based gains across domestic-demandsensitive sectors were accompanied by recoveries in agriculture, fishing, and

manufacturing. While the 3-month sequential growth momentum remained

slightly negative by July, we project a strong recovery in the third quarter of the

year. Domestic demand continues to show strength, underpinned by high terms of

trade, employment creation and constructive expectations ahead. The key question

for the last quarter of the year and the first months of 2027 is whether that resilience

can be sustained as the global El Niño combines with the coastal one. Our baseline

assumes a transitory impact on activity growth, with the economcy quickly

recovering in the second quarter of 2027.

After adjusting for seasonality and calendar effects, economic activity increased

1.7% m/m sa in July, rebounding after two consecutive monthly declines. The

recovery was driven primarily by fishing and fishing-related manufacturing,

which posted a partial payback following their sharp contraction in May and June,

while domestic-demand-sensitive sectors continued to perform well.

Incorporating the latest release and historical revisions, three-month sequential

growth remains slightly negative at -0.7% q/q saar, following a -0.2% contraction

in 2Q26 and a 4.0% expansion in 1Q26. Nevertheless, we expect growth

momentum to improve in the coming months. In over-year-ago terms, activity

…