Back to School Freight Pulse Series

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Corporate Research

16 September 2026

Back to School Freight Pulse

Series

Feedback from Lufthansa Cargo: Constructive nearand mid-term backdrop underpinned by resilient

demand and structurally constrained freighter capacity

For our fourth session of our Back to School Freight Pulse Series, we hosted Gregor

Schleussner, CFO of Lufthansa Cargo, an operating unit of the Lufthansa Group,

which is the fourth-largest cargo operator globally. The session focused on

airfreight supply/demand dynamics, current trends, and what Lufthansa Cargo is

seeing “on the ground” across lanes and end-markets. The expert highlighted the

following key points: positive near-term outlook for airfreight supported by

underlying demand with an expectation of a peak season materialising in 4Q26

(albeit q/q uplift more muted given higher earnings base in prior quarters); limited

new freighter capacity entering the system due to fleet age and aircraft

manufacturer delivery constraints; the ongoing volatility from geopolitical

disruption favouring air freight where service reliability (especially for

temperature-controlled/specialty shipments) is a key differentiator. The expert

highlighted that demand is currently driven by the Tech, Healthcare and AI buildout related verticals and Lufthansa Cargo remains confident on the duration of

these demand trends. The expert also highlighted that the bellyhold capacity’s role

in air cargo flows will likely increase in the future and its approach on pricing now

increasingly reflects the value-add of the service rather than its historical

contribution-based approach. Our view: The session framed a constructive

backdrop for airfreight dynamics near and medium term and confirmed our view

that the industry has a structurally more favourable outlook beyond the benefit of

disruptions near term. On this theme, in European Logistics, we see DHL (OW,

+CW) as most positively exposed given its industry leading position in Express,

which continues to benefit from improving demand trends and its targeted Smart

Industrial growth strategy, which looks to gain share from commodity air freight.

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