GIS & CAG Previews, Chase Spending Data, Rising Freight/Logistics Costs (JBHT), Restaurants Worst Day Since Liberation Day

Research evidence excerpt

Briggs Barton - Specialist Sales - US Consumer AC

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

North America Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

16 September 2026

GIS & CAG Previews, Chase Spending Data, Rising Freight/Logistics

Costs (JBHT), Restaurants Worst Day Since Liberation Day

Briggs Barton

MORNING UPDATE

Major indexes (SPX, QQQ) bouncing a bit as oil prices drift modestly lower with all eyes on the Fed at 2pm

(expectations >90% for a 25bps hike and the dot plot of 75bps total hikes by ened-2027 (inclusive of the 25bps today).

JB Hunt (logistics/freight) this morning ahead of a conference issued a negative business update where they call our cost

pressures including higher driver compensation, fuel, etc – eventually this will flow through to prices, and concerns on

the inflationary impact to corporate profit margins and consumer demand destruction remain front and center given brent

hovering close to ~$110.

Our Restaurants index -6% yday (-3z move), its worst day since Liberation Day. We had called this out over the

weekend as the consumer subsector where positioning is lowest on our book: L/S ratio ~0.6 is at the lowest level its been

over the last 1yr, and looking back to 2018. However, also worth noting thatour Restaurant Index was nearly 20% lower

the last time the 10yr was at these levels (Fall 2023) –group is always particularly sensitive to the 10yr and oil/inflationary

concerns in terms of fundamental impact/equity value impact.

From Research today — Tom Palmer previews GIS (9/23) where we see slight upside to OSG/EPS and a FY guide

reiteration, and CAG (9/30) where a low bar for Q1 (and eventually lower protein prices) could help offset mounting freight/

fuel pressures (we wonder if Q2 EPS messaging could be incrementally cautious).

CHASE SPENDING DATA — Latest update (thru Sept 8) continues to look resilient in the face of concerns on the health

of the consumer: Total Sept spending up 6.0% MTD (>Aug 5.3%) driven by Discretionary acceleration (6.0% MTD vs Aug

5.6%) and Non-Discretionary (6.1% MTD vs Aug 4.7%). NOTE

DETAILED COMMENTARY

GIS Q1 Preview

Consumption trends would suggest OSG upside (JPMe -1.6% vs st -1.9%) and we think that this could translate to EPS

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