JPM | US Energy: Risk Rallies Pre-FOMC, Russia Extends Export Ban, China Inventories Wane, Saudi Doubles Loadings, STS Transfers/Flows Pickup, Gold ETFs Top Heavy into FOMC, TTF 4z Inflow, DVN Asset Sales, BTM Deep Dive Pt. II

Research evidence excerpt

Brendan Henrici - Specialist Sales - US Energy AC

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

North America Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

16 September 2026

JPM | US Energy: Risk Rallies Pre-FOMC, Russia Extends Export Ban,

China Inventories Wane, Saudi Doubles Loadings, STS Transfers/Flows

Pickup, Gold ETFs Top Heavy into FOMC, TTF 4z Inflow, DVN Asset

Sales, BTM Deep Dive Pt. II

Brendan Henrici, CFA

Key Highlights Today:

Risk Rallies Ahead of FOMC, Energy Vol Falls

Russia Extends Export Ban, China Inventories Wane

Saudi Doubles Ras Tanura/Juymah Loadings

STS Transfers & Hormuz Flows Pickup To Compensate

Metals Research: Gold ETFs Top Heavy into FOMC

TTF ~4z Inflow Over Past 4 Weeks

DVN Asset Sales

BTM Deep Dive - Day 2

Access, Calls & Surveys:

SAVE THE DATE: J.P. Morgan Global Energy Conference, Nov 30th-Dec 1st, in-person, London.

9/16 Sep @ 11am EST: US Equity Research Fall Series | E&P, Integrated Oils and OFS Register Here

9/17 @ 10 am EST: Clean Energy and Power Infrastructure Fall Series Register Here

10/02 @ 10:30am EST: US Equity Research Fall Series | Jeremy Tonet | North American Midstream Here

Brendan’s Brief:

In Brief: Subdued energy volatility is helping arrest the slide in risk assets ahead of FOMC this afternoon. On the latter and as

priced into markets, we anticipate the fed will move to increase the funds rate by 25bps this afternoon. More important than the

hike itself is the direction of travel into 2027. Markets now anticipate close to 4 hikes by this time next year (up from just one in

the summer). Our team anticipates that the fed will also hike 25 in December. Still, we view the dual hikes in 2026 as a

“recalibration” rather than the start of a more sustained hiking cycle. Any evidence that would corroborate this— a recalibration

as opposed to the steeper path the market is pricing—is where upside lies for markets this afternoon.

Markets Now Price ~4 Hikes by Next Fall...

1