Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 16 September 2026 – NAB transaction data, Endeavour & EGM reform, Cue administration, GLP-1s

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 September 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 16 September 2026 –

NAB transaction data, Endeavour & EGM reform, Cue

administration, GLP-1s

Key themes we are exploring today:

NAB August spending data continues to show resilience, with

discretionary spending accelerating to +8.3%. NAB's August consumer

spending data continued to show resilience in spending, with overall spending

growth at +1.1% MoM (+0.6% MoM ex-fuel), and +8.7% YoY (vs. +7.7% in

July), with discretionary spending also resilient at +8.3% YoY (vs.+8.1% in

Jul) despite a 12.0% MoM increase in fuel spend in August (note this is in

essentials). The acceleration was driven by Recreation & Personal services,

Hotels, Travel & Transport, and Other discretionary services (computer system

design, advertising services). As we noted in our post-reporting season outlook

(see here), ABS household spending and card transaction data showed solid

consumer spending, whilst Jul/Aug trading updates across consumer stocks

saw flat/decelerating momentum. Service-driven acceleration in NAB's

August discretionary spending data offers a partial explanation for the

divergence, although key drivers of the gap remain unclear at this point in time,

with potential drivers being increased EV car sales inflating macro consumer

spending data, and potential market share loss to marketplaces and offshore

online retailers.

Proposed ACT gaming reform a concern for Endeavour. The ACT

Government is proposing to introduce a gaming reform package, which

includes: 1) banning EFTPOS and ATM cash withdrawals at venues with poker

machines; 2) making account-based cashless gaming mandatory; 3) easier

access to gambling exclusion; 4) reducing poker machine operating hours by

15 hours per week; and 5) reduce poker machine licenses to no more than 1,000

by 2045, from ~5,000 currently. Carded gaming is a significant step in EGM

reforms, which is likely to impact turnover levels, as this typically comes with

linkage to bank accounts and players setting maximum loss limits. A 15 minute

break for every hour of continuous play on a poker machine could be

…