Terna In limbo - model update

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

Terna

Neutral

TRN.MI, TRN IM

Price (15 Sep 26):€9.23

In limbo - model update

▲Price Target (Dec-28):€9.55

Prior (Dec-26):€9.25

We have updated our estimates to include a stronger delivery than we previously

expected in the non-regulated businesses as well as a less steep increase in net

financial expenses. This drives a 1.1% increase in our 2026E EBITDA estimates

and a 5.2% rise in 26E Adj. EPS. For 2027, the increase in non-regulated EBITDA,

higher inflation assumptions feeding into the regulated revenues and higher

output-based incentives are fully offset by our expectation that the regulatory

trigger mechanism will be enacted and there will be a 30bp reduction in the

headline allowed return in 2027E (to 5.2% pre-tax real). As a result, our 2027

EBITDA estimate is virtually unchanged (+0.1%), while our Adj. EPS estimate

benefits from lower estimated D&A and lower net financial expenses (partly due

to a lower end 2026E net debt thanks to working capital) and increases by 4.1%.

We have updated our valuation to incorporate our new estimates and rolled forward

our PT to end-28. As a result, our PT increases from €9.25 to €9.55, with the benefit

from higher net income estimates and higher inflation accrued into the future RAB

partially offset by the higher discount rates (we now estimate a cost of equity of

8%).

In our projections we have assumed no meaningful change in the regulatory

framework, with stable allowed returns, no change in the remuneration to WIP and

a gradually increasing profile for incentives until 2029 and stable thereafter.

However, we acknowledge that the equity story faces more uncertainties than it has

experienced in the past few years. The new board of ARERA (regulator) has started

the regulatory review in the gas sector by demanding consultation papers and this

creates some uncertainty about what the regulator may want to see as a contribution

from regulated network companies in an environment where energy affordability

profiles highly among the concerns of the Italian population. We are aware that

traditionally the scenarios in the consultation papers are more demanding than final

…