European Food Retail: Buyback Tracker; Buyback upside risk looming at TSCO/SBRY

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

European Food Retail

Buyback Tracker; Buyback upside risk looming at

TSCO/SBRY

Four of the nine stocks within our European Food Retail coverage currently have

share buybacks underway, with progress towards completion generally a point of

focus for investors. With this simple tracker, we aim to highlight the differences in

the pace of execution (in order to flag any material share price movements driven

by major buybacks) and the pending quantums vis à vis the guidance given by the

companies. We also include: (i) the average daily traded volume and average daily

shares repurchased to arrive at an implied end date for the buyback, assuming it is

executed at the current pace, and (ii) the company’s headroom to upgrade buybacks

given leverage positions.

European Food Retail

Borja Olcese AC

(34-91) 516-1511

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Palak Garg

(91-22) 6157-5102

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

Highlights: (i) Tesco’s and Sainsbury’s buybacks for FY27 are underway, with

both executing well above a linear pace, e.g. TSCO has concluded 73% of the

buyback already with c7 months still left; (ii) both companies have the firepower

to top up their buybacks whilst staying within the guided leverage target ranges

(2.3-2.8x for TSCO, FY26: 2.1x; 2.4-3.0x for SBRY, FY26: 2.6x). We see an

upgrade as most likely for Tesco in the context of its apparent CE operations review

(here) as well as prior £1bn+ run rate in FY25 and FY26; (iii) in contrast, Ahold’s

leverage is at recent highs (c2.1x vs 1.8-2x prior), and the company has consistently

undertaken a €1bn buyback p.a. for the past seven years. Therefore, we see a more

limited probability of additional buybacks; and (iv) for all three players, if the

buyback is executed at current pace, it could potentially conclude well ahead of

target completion dates. However, the pace is typically not linear over time and is

affected by vesting periods.

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709

Figure 1: Buyback Tracker: Summary

Company

Ahold Delhaize

Colruyt3

Sainsbury

Tesco

Target Buyback (in

mn)

€ 1,000

€ 1,210

£300

…