European Food Retail: Farmers Market

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

European Food Retail

Farmers Market

A farmers market would typically offer high-quality fresh produce regularly in one

location. Our publication aims to achieve the same goal and will recap the most

relevant sector metrics in one report/spreadsheet, including but not limited to: (1)

coverage stance and sector performance; (2) valuation update; (3) JPMe vs latest

consensus estimates (Bloomberg/company-compiled); (4) screening within the

margin cycle, as well as performance of LFLs and margins across macroeconomic

events; (5) LFL/market share momentum; (6) key grocery macro indicators (e.g.

Food CPI, Food PPI); (7) UK/France price trackers; and (8) upcoming key

catalysts for our European Food Retail coverage. The detailed workbook is

available here.

The data within underpin our sector stance: (1) The UK remains most visible,

whereas Poland and the US are feeling pressure from a top-down perspective

(reflation trade is delayed); (2) Underlying top-line momentum is stronger at

Sainsbury and Tesco vs the rest of our coverage; (3) Our estimates sit cMSD-HSD

% higher for GRG/TSCO/SBRY (bigger operating leverage vs the Street); (4) The

margin cycle would suggest four of our UWs (B&M, Carrefour, Ahold-Delhaize,

Colruyt) are still over-earning; (5) Ahold-Delhaize has meaningfully cracked from

peak share price/valuation, and yet market expectations remain too high, whilst

guidance seems at risk to us.

European Food Retail

Borja Olcese AC

(34-91) 516-1511

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Palak Garg

(91-22) 6157-5102

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Specialist Sales contact details:

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709