Soitec: Upgrading to OW: Mobile concerns washed away by the wave of Photonics

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

Soitec

Upgrading to OW: Mobile concerns washed away by

the wave of Photonics

▲Overweight

Previous: Neutral

SOIT.PA, SOI FP

Price (15 Sep 26):€123.00

▲Price Target (Jun-28):€200.00

Prior (Dec-27):€98.00

We are upgrading Soitec to Overweight from our previous Neutral stance - while

our prior concerns on market decline and share loss in Mobile remain, these are

overwhelmed by raised expectations for the Silicon Photonics business, which we

now expect to exceed €1b in FY30 and at a higher contribution margin than the

company has delivered historically. From our interactions with investors (and

evidenced in sell-side consensus and recommendations), this stock still divides

opinion and in our view the earnings leverage looks to be underestimated, which

we think leaves upside (even with the shares performing strongly year-to-date).

Our new Jun-28 price target is €200 (vs. €98 previously), reflecting raised

forecasts.

European Tech Hardware &

Payments

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales European TMT

Upgrading our SiPho estimates: We make meaningful upgrades to our SiPho

forecast reflecting far faster end-market demand, and improving visibility on

volumes. Importantly, Capacity Reservation Agreements improve visibility on

volumes, but leave price floating (which likely leaves upside in the near- to

medium term). We still factor in market share erosion and mild price erosion

in outer years, but now see >€1b revenue in FY30. We expect that Soitec will

need to extend the Singapore facility in order to meet demand, and factor this

into our forecasts.

Concerns on Mobile remain but pale into insignificance: The issues which

had kept us Neutral are all still in play, chiefly the negative Mobile market in

the near/medium-term and longer-term Soitec' market share. Our estimates for

the non-SiPho business are materially below latest Bloomberg consensus (DD

% below). However, a missing ~€80m of revenue in Mobile in FY29 is

immaterial in the context of significant upside on SiPho.

Earnings leverage powerful and underestimated: Conversations with

investors indicate that investors are ‘anchoring’ to the prior peak gross and

…