SIG Group AG: Glass half full but competitors skimming from the top; initiate at Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

Initiation

SIG Group AG

Glass half full but competitors skimming from the top;

initiate at Neutral

SIG is the world’s second-largest aseptic carton producer and holds leading market

positions in spouted pouch and bag-in-box packaging. In this note, we explore (1)

SIG’s attempts to diversify into higher growth markets, (2) SIG’s sustainability led

offering and filling machine moat in mature markets, (3) the challenges that

competitors pose in its targeted higher growth regions and (4) what we see as a

“new normal” growth rate for the business over the MT-LT. In our view, the equity

story over the MT-LT is muted but this seems to be discounted in the share price

with multiples being ~1 standard deviation below average levels and our valuation

methodologies all suggesting LDD% upside. We initiate on SIG with a Neutral

recommendation and a Dec-27 target price of CHF 14.8/share.

Demand growth in SIG’s end markets (here). SIG’s end markets have

matured in most geographies. Accordingly, demand growth for SIG’s products

is mainly contingent on the adoption of cartons from other substrates. While we

see scope for this to occur in regions such as the Americas and APAC, this does

not meaningfully improve our take on volume growth over the MT-LT. SIG

recognises this and has therefore pivoted towards less mature end markets by

increasing exposure to Emerging Markets and new product groups (which

have under-performed expectations). However, this also has its challenges.

SIG has built a moat, but competitive pressures persist (here & here). SIG

makes and sells blank-fed filling machines as opposed to the more widely used

roll-fed alternative. Blank-fed systems offer greater flexibility and

customization, making them better suited to premium applications where

packaging specifications and sustainability requirements are higher, and where

price elasticity tends to be lower. In mature markets where these qualities are

most prevalent, SIG has a moat. However, our analysis shows that in Emerging

Markets, competitors have taken advantage of higher price elasticity and lower

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