Alstom: Early thoughts ahead of November H1 results and exploring derivative trade

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

Alstom

Early thoughts ahead of November H1 results and

exploring derivative trade

The upcoming H1 results on November 17 is an important catalyst for Alstom’s

investment case and share price. While we are bullish fundamentally on a 12-18

month view at current levels and would be buying on short-term weakness,

investors should be aware of the potential near-term temporary downside, which

we believe is fundamentally in the price already. The Alstom shares have de-rated

since the April profit warning on fears of another warning as the new CEO, who

joined at the start of April and barely two weeks into the role back then, will do a

thorough review of projects which could lead to a kitchen sink. Alstom reviews its

projects’ costs twice a year; we believe the process is currently ongoing, and the

outcome will be reflected in H1 results. Should Alstom report H1 results in-line

with its FY27 guidance, the risk of a kitchen sink will significantly diminish and

sentiment should improve ahead of the planned CMD in early 2027 with a short

squeeze in the first instance. Given that the last warning came in mid-April, we

expect the stock to perform well from mid-October, especially if it avoids any

negative surprises given the elevated short interest. While we like Alstom on a

12-18 month view on turnaround potential and growth in end markets, if we didn’t

own the stock today, there may be a cheaper and/or de-risked entry point on or after

the H1 results, and we would be minded to recommend exploring a derivative trade

into the event itself for shorter term market participants to cap downside risk. Our

Derivatives Strategy team recommends investors position to the upside via Nov-26

€18.20 - €20.0 call spreads that offer up to 6.6x leverage to the invested premium

and limit losses to the equivalent of ~1.7% of spot.

How we got here: On April 16, Alstom pre-released FY26 results and issued

FY27 guidance in an unscheduled release, with both missing the standing

consensus. The reported ~6% Adj EBIT margin for FY26 was 80bps short of

consensus while FY27 margin guidance of ~6.5% was 50bps below consensus.

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