AstraZeneca: Delivery of 2027 pipeline should improve confidence in Astra‘s ability to continue to grow beyond 2030

Research evidence excerpt

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Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

AstraZeneca

Delivery of 2027 pipeline should improve confidence in

Astra’s ability to continue to grow beyond 2030

We see AZN as offering the richest runway of pipeline newsflow in the sector over the

next 18 months, including the Datroway readouts in 1L lung cancer (AVANZAR in

4Q 2026 and TL07 in 2027) and camizestrant in adjuvant breast cancer (CAMBRIA1). Beyond AVANZAR and CAMBRIA-1, we see significant newsflow in 2027

capable of driving a re-rating towards our PT of £160 (19x P/E multiple), including

Phase III readouts for: the cholesterol lowering agent laroprovstat (the oral PCSK9);

the Farxiga combination studies; Datroway in earlier-stages of triple negative breast

cancer; puxi-sam in 2L+ endometrial cancer and saruparib in castration-sensitive

prostate cancer. We see these readouts collectively offering >$10bn in risk-adjusted

peak sales, which should improve confidence in Astra’s ability to continue to deliver

growth post 2030. Overall, we see current levels as an attractive entry point into

a strong mid-term growth story, with pipeline readouts in 2027 offering

significant potential for upgrades to Astra's long-term outlook, and we therefore

reiterate our Overweight.

Oral PCSK9 lipid lowering Phase III in 1Q 2027 should de-risk a >$5bn

peak sales opportunity. We expect positive Phase III oral PCSK9 readouts for

laroprovstat in 1Q 2027 (AZURE-LDL & AZUE-HeFH), anticipating the c.

50% reduction in LDL-C from baseline to 12 weeks seen in Phase II to be

broadly replicated in Phase III. While this is lower than Merck & Co’s

Lipfendra’s 60% reduction, we anticipate the lack of a fasting requirement

should allow AZN to take meaningful share in the PCSK9 market, de-risking

a >$5bn peak sales opportunity (Consensus risk-adjusted peak of $2.4bn).

Two Farxiga combinations have Phase III data through 2027, offering a

further >$5bn in peak sales. Zibotentan/Farxiga in high proteinuria with

CKD with Phase III data in 1Q 2027 and balcinerenone/Farxiga in heart failure

with renal impairment with Phase III data in 3Q 2027, together offer a further

>$5bn peak sales.…