Global Investment Banks: Read - across from US banks‘ comments on 3Q IB performance - room for potential upgrades

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

16 September 2026

Global Investment Banks

Read-across from US banks’ comments on 3Q IB

performance - room for potential upgrades

US Banks (BofA, Citi and JPMC) this week have commented on Markets and IB

Fee trends so far in 3Q with the YoY guidance for Markets (FICC+Equities Sales

& Trading) revenue ranging from relatively flat (BofA) to up mid-single-digit %

(Citi) to up mid-to-high teens % (JPMC). We forecast 3Q markets revenues +10%

YoY for Global IBs in our coverage, with US +18% on average and Europe +2%

on average. We note that September, where we still have 2 weeks to go, is usually

the make or break month for IB revenues in 3Q and hence we see the current

guidance by bank managements as likely building an element of conservatism with

upside surprise potential when the banks report 3Q earnings. We expect Equities

YoY outperformance to continue in 3Q (+21% YoY in USD) for Global IBs in

our coverage, despite some normalization (-27% QoQ) from a record 2Q. For

FICC, we forecast YoY revenues to be flat in 3Q and down -13% QoQ for Global

IBs in our coverage. IB Fees 3QTD, based on Dealogic data, are tracking -9% YoY

with ECM +14%, DCM -12% and M&A revenues -15% YoY. We note that IB fee

data, especially in advisory, can be lumpy depending on the timing of deal closures

and associated fee bookings. Overall, we maintain our positive view on IBs and

continue to expect an ongoing strong performance with the caveat that 2H is

usually seasonally slower than 1H and 1H 26 has been exceptionally strong,

especially in Equities +41% YoY for Global IBs in our coverage. Our current

forecasts assume FICC -22% and Equities -24% in 2H 26E vs. 1H 26, leading to

markets revenues -23% for Global IBs in our coverage HoH in 2H 26E.

What is the read-across for Europe? There is no FX headwind in 3Q for

European IBs on a YoY basis; however, they are less geared to the AI theme than

their US counterparts and do not have as much Commodities gearing in FICC,

leading to a less favorable overall mix. With its mainly equities-geared mix in

markets, UBS is best positioned from a mix perspective, while for DBK,

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