Ecuador: Real Activity Extended the Soft Momentum in June

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Research

20 August 2026 | 8:59PM EDT

Ecuador: Real Activity Extended the Soft Momentum in June

Bottom Line: Real GDP, as measured by the IMAEc monthly activity indicator,

increased by 2.3% yoy sa (2.5% yoy) in June. The increase was driven by a 2.3% yoy

sa expansion in non-oil activity as oil activity rose by a more moderate 0.8% yoy sa.

Sequentially, real GDP declined by a large 1.3% mom sa in June, driven by 1.0% mom

sa weaker activity in the non-oil sector and a 1.5% mom sa contraction of oil-GDP.

Sergio Armella

+1(212)357-9077 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Overall, the economy’s soft performance in June extended the general weakness

that followed January’s very strong growth print. After today’s real activity data

release, we marked our growth forecast for 2026 down by 0.2pp to 2.4%. We see

balanced risks to this forecast. Domestic liquidity conditions have improved, credit

could continue to provide positive support for activity, and non-oil exports and

remittances remain robust. On the other hand, low rainfall could lead to power

outages later in the year with the potential to weigh on the economy.

KEY NUMBERS (June):

Monthly Real GDP (IMAEc): +2.3% yoy sa (-1.3% mom sa) vs GS at 3.0% yoy sa.

Non-oil GDP: +2.3% yoy sa (-1.0% mom sa).

Oil GDP: +0.8% yoy sa (-1.5% mom sa).

DETAILS:

1. Real GDP, as measured by the IMAEc monthly activity indicator, increased 2.3%

sa from a year ago in June. The NSA series points to a slightly firmer 2.5% yoy

expansion.

2. On an annual basis, the expansion in June was driven by non-oil activity that

increased by a similar 2.3% yoy sa (+2.0pp contribution). Oil activity rose by 0.8%

yoy sa (+0.0pp contribution). Manufacturing activity increased 4.2% yoy sa

(+0.5pp contribution), services activity increased by 2.6% yoy sa (+1.2pp

contribution), construction rose 3.9% yoy sa (+0.2pp contribution), and

commerce increased 4.0% yoy sa (+0.6pp contribution). Agriculture and

livestock, in turn, declined by 1.5% yoy sa (-0.1pp contribution) and activity in

the oil and mining sector declined by 3.4% yoy sa (-0.3pp contribution).

3. Sequentially, real GDP declined by 1.3% mom sa in June, driven by a 1.0% mom

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