Banco Macro (BMA): Key takeaways from 2Q26 conference call: Updated guidance with higher ROE but lower loan growth

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

20 August 2026 | 9:34PM EDT

Banco Macro (BMA): Key takeaways from 2Q26 conference call:

Updated guidance with higher ROE but lower loan growth

2030 plan targeting 20% nominal ROE

Adjusted real ROE guidance rose to 12% from 8% for 2026, with

stronger-than-expected NIM, as the bond-portfolio and FX income should offset

lower spreads. However, loan growth guidance was cut to 2-5% in real terms amid

higher domestic rates. Meanwhile, the bank does not expect coverage to drop below

90% and cost of risk should be between 6.5-7.0%, with NPLs of 5.5-6.0%, and Stage

3 well below 4%. Management flagged election-related volatility ahead of 2027,

though record USD deposits signal improved public confidence. Finally, it announced

a 2030 plan targeting nominal ROE of 20%, driven by volume growth, fee income

diversification, branch closures, and higher primary customer penetration, with

US$2.7bn of excess capital keeping buybacks and M&A optionality open. Maintain

Buy.

Tito Labarta

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Tiago Binsfeld, CFA

+55(11)3371-4574 |

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Juliana Ohara

+55(11)3372-0202 |

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Significant increase in estimates after the earnings beat

We raise our nominal recurring net income estimates by 14% in 2026, 11% in 2027

and 15% in 2028 after the stronger than expected print. Although, the increase is

mainly driven by higher market related income and lower monetary losses, partly

offset by weaker subsidiary income and higher provisions, given a slower expected

recovery, despite the better print in the quarter. Our updated real recurring ROEs are

12.0% in 2026, in-line with updated guidance, 12.8% in 2027 and 14.0% in 2028,

albeit below the 2030 target (20% nominal) at 16%. Our nominal reported net

income estimates are 8% above Bloomberg consensus in 2026, 11% above in 2027

but 2% below in 2028, but we note that the numbers are not directly comparable as

consensus does not distinguish between real and nominal estimates, and numbers

might still not be fully reflecting the updated ROE guidance.

Discount valuation, but solid capital base with improving ROE

…