Guzman y Gomez (GYG.AX): FY26 First Take: Positive result and guidance with profitability improved by US exit; Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

21 August 2026 | 9:45AM AEST

Guzman y Gomez (GYG.AX): FY26 First Take: Positive result and

guidance with profitability improved by US exit; Neutral

GS take: We expect Guzman to trade positively today driven by positive SSSg

result/guidance, improved profitability post US-exit and modest improvement in

network/drive-thru store margins. Note headline comparable numbers are muddied

by the US exit. Looking forward, 4Q26 SSSg of +5.7% (3Q26 +6.6%) appears to have

improved into the first 7-weeks 1H27 at high-single digits (1H27/FY27 Visible Alpha

consensus +5.4%/+5.0%) and should be viewed positively in the current consumer

backdrop, in our view. Call at 10am. Neutral.

Elijah Mayr

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Elise Bailey

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Key takeaways:

n

Australian Segment Ebitda. Adjusted Australian Segment Ebitda of A$85m was

in-line versus Guidance/GSe/consensus of A$85m with the network margin of

6.2%, within the guided 6.0-6.2% range (6.2%/6.2%). Adjusted Npat (continuing)

of A$53.4m (+30% YoY) highlights how much a detractor the USA operations

were.

n

Australian SSSg remains elevated. FY26 SSSg of +5.3% was above consensus of

+5.2% with 4Q26 SSSg of +5.7% slowing from the +6.6% in 3Q26 but remaining

elevated.

n

Australian store margins improve. At the store level, FY26 drive-thru/strip

margins were 21.6%/18.0%, versus 21.5%/18.4% in FY25. At a network level

store margins improved 20bps to 20.3%.

n

Australian store roll-out. Guzman opened gross/net stores of +32/31 in

Australia, in-line with guidance of gross new stores of +32.

n

USA exit complete, significantly improving Group profitability. We expect

investors to look through the one-off cost impact of US$30-40m (US$15m cash)

with the USA exit materially improving the Group profitability.

n

Balance Sheet remains in a position of strength. Guzman reported net cash of

A$171m earmarked for further store rollout and will fund a further A$100m

buy-back, post completing a A$100m buyback in FY26.

Update / outlook:

n

FY27 guidance.

o

Guidance for mid-single digit SSSg in 2027 with first 7-weeks noted to be

tracking at high-single digits. Consensus 1H27/FY27 of +5.4%/+5.0%.

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