Japan: July National CPI: New Core CPI Accelerates in Line With Market Forecast on Rise in Consumable Goods Prices and Other Factors

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Research

21 August 2026 | 10:13AM JST

Japan: July National CPI: New Core CPI Accelerates in Line With Market

Forecast on Rise in Consumable Goods Prices and Other Factors

BOTTOM LINE: The July national new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy)

came in at +1.9% yoy, accelerating from +1.7% in June, in line with the market

forecast. The impact of soaring naphtha and memory chip prices led to price

increases for some consumable and durable goods, pushing up the new core CPI,

albeit slightly. Although price hikes were seen in many food items, they were offset by

a decline in rice prices. The global core CPI (excludes food other than alcohol and

energy) rose +1.4% yoy, a +0.2pp acceleration from June. The core CPI (excludes

fresh food) also came in at +1.8%, a +0.2 pp acceleration from June, in line with the

market forecast, due to an acceleration in electricity and gas charges.

Tomohiro Ota

+81(3)4587-9984 |

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

KEY NUMBERS

Year-on-year

n

National Core CPI (excl. fresh food): yoy, July: +1.8%, GS fcst: +1.8%, BBG

consensus: +1.8%, June: +1.6%

n

National New Core CPI (excl. fresh food and energy): yoy, July: +1.9%, GS fcst:

+1.9%, BBG consensus: +1.9%, June: +1.7%

n

National Global Core CPI (excl. food other than alcohol and energy): yoy, July:

+1.4%, June: +1.2%

n

National Headline CPI: yoy, July: +1.9%, June: +1.6%

Month-on-month (seasonally adjusted)

n

National Core CPI: mom, July: +0.3%, June: +0.2%

n

National New Core CPI: mom, July: +0.3%, June: +0.2%

n

National Global Core CPI (GS estimation): mom, July: +0.3%, June: +0.2%

n

National Headline CPI: mom, July: +0.4%, June: +0.3%

The July national new core CPI inflation rate came in at +1.9% yoy, accelerating

slightly from +1.7% in June, in line with the market forecast. Price increases, likely

reflecting the impact of “naphtha-flation”, were seen in some household consumable

goods such as detergent and plastic bags, and price hikes, likely reflecting soaring

memory chip prices, were seen in some durable goods such as tablet devices,

pushing up the new core CPI, albeit slightly (the total positive contribution is

estimated to be less than +0.1 pp).…