The 720: India Financials - Sector Initiation, Alibaba, Netease, Kuaishou, Asics, Mitsubishi Electric, Atour, Li Ning, Henderson Land

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

21 August 2026 | 7:18AM HKT

The 720: India Financials - Sector Initiation, Alibaba, Netease, Kuaishou,

Asics, Mitsubishi Electric, Atour, Li Ning, Henderson Land

In Focus | India Financials - Sector Initiation

India Financials – Core PPoP Recovery to Drive Stock Returns. We initiate coverage on

14 Indian banks, as we expect the sector is approaching a cyclical inflection with

core PPoP growth accelerating to ~17% YoY over FY26-FY29E. This recovery is

underpinned by steady ~14% loan growth, a 10bps NIM recovery off an FY27 trough,

and benign asset quality. We believe profitability will be the key driver of stock

performance, with private banks’ valuations near 15-year lows, fully pricing in

structural headwinds. We see the strongest upside in ICICI Bank (12m TP Rs1,935)

and Kotak Mahindra Bank (12m TP Rs509), initiating both at Buy, while also initiating

HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, and Federal Bank at Buy. Sumeet

Kariwala

Michael Snaith

+852-2978-0455 |

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Caleb Chan

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

India Financials – What Could Drive the Return of Private Banks? We believe a

sustained re-rating for Indian private banks hinges on loan growth reviving to

1.5-2.0x nominal GDP alongside improving profitability, following a period of

de-rating driven by slower deposit growth and risk-spread compression. Our analysis

suggests a potential profitability uplift of ~45bps over the next five years for banks

that successfully execute on ecosystem banking, enhance risk-adjusted spreads by

shifting toward higher-margin commercial retail segments, and unlock operating

leverage. Large private banks are better positioned to execute this transition given

their scale and early-mover advantage in technology. We prefer Buy-rated ICICI Bank

for its early lead in customer-centric ecosystem banking and Kotak Mahindra Bank

for its significant turnaround potential across multiple high-margin profit pools.

Sumeet Kariwala

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