SQM (SQM US): Buy: Make hay while the sun shines

Research evidence excerpt

20 August 2026

SQM (SQM US)

Equities

Agricultural Products

Buy: Make hay while the sun shines

Chile

◆ Robust 2Q26 results driven by record lithium volumes and

MAINTAIN BUY

firm lithium prices

TARGET PRICE (USD)

PREVIOUS TARGET (USD)

95.00

◆ Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of USD95.00

SHARE PRICE (USD)

UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

74.47

+27.6%

Strong 2Q26 results: 2Q26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by higherthan-anticipated lithium and specialty plant nutrition volumes. A supportive pricing

environment incentivised the company to lift shipments during the quarter,

highlighting operational flexibility. See Equity Snap: SQM (SQM US) - 2Q26 results:

Strong beat for details.

(as of 18 Aug 2026)

◆ Sustained momentum likely, underpinned by elevated lithium

pricing and volume growth

Strong growth outlook: The company guided Nova Andino (Chile) production to be

280-290kt LCE for FY26 (the previous guidance was for sales volumes to be 15% yo-y higher implying volumes of c270kt). It also expects Chile production capacity to

exceed 300ktpa LCE by 2027. In Australia, SQM and partner Wesfarmers (WES AU,

CMP AUD84.26, not rated) announced plans to double Mt Holland capacity from

380kt to 760kt (5.5% Li₂O spodumene concentrate). Construction is expected to

commence in 2H27, with production targeted for 1H30. Higher Chile output should

support near-term volume growth, while the Australian expansion provides mediumterm upside.

HSBC view on the lithium market: China battery-grade lithium carbonate prices

have moderated from the May 2026 peak but remain higher year-to-date. Prices have

faced pressure from signs of softer EV sales momentum in China, the restart of

previously curtailed supply, and broader weakness in global technology equities. We

expect prices to stay elevated in the near term, supported by strong demand and

delays to the restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine. While restarts in Australia could add

meaningful supply (c60–70kt incremental), the bulk of the impact is likely to be felt in

2027. Following the initial announcement of a ban on the export of lithium

concentrate, Zimbabwe later announced it would issue export quotas in 2026 and

…