Carlsberg: Key takeaways from sell-side meeting

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

20 August 2026

Carlsberg

Key takeaways from sell-side meeting

Overweight

CARLb.CO, CARLB DC

Price (19 Aug 26):Dkr889.20

Price Target (Dec-27):Dkr975.00

We attended a sell-side meeting today with Carlsberg’s CEO, Jacob AarupAndersen; CFO, Ulrica Fearn; and the IR team, where management discussed

H126 results reported yesterday (First Take and Post the Call), as well as views into

H226. The team was positive on H126 results (ex-China’s ongoing weakness) and

highlighted ongoing resilience of overall performance stemming from

geographical and category (Beer and non-Beer) diversification. Beyond China

worries that stemmed from weather and increased distributor inventories amid a

tough consumer and competitive environment, management stressed strength

elsewhere, including new commercial opportunities (Kazakhstan, Sapporo),

Britvic synergies, and organic volumes (Vietnam Beer, UK Soft Drinks).

Management remains confident in the ongoing mid-term algorithm and foresee

gross margin resilience in FY27 despite upcoming COGS inflation. Overall, we

still view market reaction as punitive on the China weather-driven miss in Q2, as

Carlsberg is able to deliver profit, improve FCF and leverage. The shares remain

among the lowest valued in EU beverages despite rebalancing the portfolio toward

more highly-valued soft drinks volumes (c.30% of group total).

European Food Producers,

Household & Personal Care

Products, Beverages & Tobacco

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

Key takeaways: 1) China. The China market was called out by management

as the only disappointment, and it remains the clear near-term drag, with severe

weather disruption, elevated inventories, and a progressive increase in

competitive intensity in Carlsberg stronghold region Chongqing. However,

they stressed that this is not a structural deterioration in the market, with

premium brands such as Carlsberg and Tuborg continuing to grow strongly,

and see current pressures as cyclical (weather) rather than indicative of a lasting

change. 2) UK Beer and Soft Drinks market. Pressure on Carlsberg’s UK

…