LATAM Corporates Daily: Your daily dose of all things LatAm

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Credit Research

20 August 2026

LATAM Corporates Daily

Your daily dose of all things LatAm

Highlights

Latin America Corporate Research

Natalia Corfield AC

CMPC: Outlook revised to negative by S&P

FSBIOE: Capex cycle and softer ethanol prices drive negative FCF

(1-212) 834-9150

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

US: Hawkish FOMC minutes prior to more dovish data

Alejandra Andrade

Earnings Calendar

(1-212) 834-3220

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Performance

Ian B Snyder

Prices in this note are as of August 19, 2026.

(1-212) 834-3798

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Florencia Palacios

CMPC: Outlook revised to negative by S&P

S&P revised its outlook on Empresas CMPC to negative from stable while

affirming the BBB- rating, reflecting a one-in-three chance of a downgrade over

the next 12–24 months. The revision was driven by weaker-than-expected 1H26

results stemming from cost pressures—including a 14% year-over-year rise in

BHKP cash costs to $254/ton and a 9% increase in BSKP costs to $419/ton—

combined with lackluster pulp price recovery, underperformance in the

Biopackaging segment, and slower-than-anticipated asset sales progress, with no

specific asset sale announcements made and 2026 inflow assumptions removed

from S&P's base case entirely, pushing expected proceeds to 2027. As a result,

adjusted debt-to-EBITDA is expected to remain slightly above 4x through yearend, only falling below the 3.5x downside trigger in 2027, contingent on successful

asset monetization. Additional downside risk stems from the proposed Natureza

project—a $4.6 billion, 2.5 million ton per year BHKP pulp mill—which currently

lacks a defined funding plan and is excluded from S&P's base case; in a stress

scenario where construction begins in 2027 fully funded by debt, leverage could

reach well above 5x at peak, and S&P explicitly notes that board approval of the

expansion without adequate financing measures could itself trigger a

downgrade.We are currently UW across the curve.

FSBIOE: Capex cycle and softer ethanol prices drive negative FCF

1Q27 was softer yoy, with weaker ethanol prices and negative FCF as FS continues

to fund a heavy capex cycle.…