Gerdau (GGBR4.SA): Canada Trade Talks Add Noise, but Fundamentals Remain Intact

Research evidence excerpt

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20 Aug 2026 08:51:00 ET │ 10 pages

Gerdau (GGBR4.SA)

Canada Trade Talks Add Noise, but Fundamentals Remain Intact

CITI'S TAKE

According to the news, the U.S. and Canada may reach a preliminary trade

arrangement, potentially involving concessions that would reduce existing

U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. This has weighed on steel

and aluminum equities, including Gerdau and its North American peers,

such as Steel Dynamics (-8%) and Nucor (-6%). The developments add

uncertainty around the future framework of the USMCA, particularly after

the U.S. opted not to renew the agreement in its current form, leaving it

subject to annual reviews.

Buy

Price (19 Aug 26 18:00)

R$22.94

Target price

R$29.00

Expected share price return

26.4%

Expected dividend yield

6.4%

Expected total return

32.8%

Market Cap

R$43,124M

US$8,332M

Implications

Our view remains unchanged that Gerdau’s North America short-term results

should continue to be positive, as discussed in our latest note (Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) Gerdau 2Q26: North America Drives a Solid Beat). Importantly, reported potential

opening trade with Canada could be viewed as more positive than negative from a

company-specific perspective, given Gerdau’s Canadian operations. Although we

view the Canada situation as less relevant for Gerdau, we believe the market's

reaction is anchored on using these negotiations as a proxy for potential U.S.Mexico trade talks, where we see a relatively higher impact for the company.

Furthermore, a better understanding of the details and terms is required,

including Canada's promises on steel tariffs (North America Steel - Canada & S232:

Details Matter A Lot; Imports Maybe Slow To Rebound But Likely Mark Peak In

Current Price Cycle). In our view, greater trade liberalization with Mexico could

result in net negative impact for the company due to shifts in the region's S&D

dynamics, ultimately affecting prices. However, we recently wrote that we believe

the start of USMCA has been benign (Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) - USMCA Negotiations

Begin: Neutral for Gerdau), and we believe it is premature to price in a reversal of the

positive environment the sector enjoys in the region.…