Brambles Limited (BXB.AX): Is execution risk manageable?

Research evidence excerpt

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20 Aug 2026 08:59:13 ET │ 15 pages

Brambles Limited (BXB.AX)

Is execution risk manageable?

CITI'S TAKE

Overall FY26 EBIT at +4% cFX was largely in line with the 3-5% guide.

However, BXB introduced 1H27 capacity constraint costs, that were much

larger than our expectations. As a result, recovery profile is much steeper

and more 2H weighted than we had originally expected. Nevertheless, when

we look at the steps/remediation plan, we estimate the majority of the

actions are BAU processes for BXB. Given BXB purchases pallets and rolls

out service centres on a regular basis, the execution risk appears

manageable. With long-term value drivers S+ and margin targets on track,

we remain cautiously optimistic and Buy rated.

More 1H costs than expected but now known — BXB quantified 1H27 repair

constraint associated costs at $95-115M. While additional expenses were expected

post the May update, this was larger than our expectations. As a result, the ~2-6%

ULP growth guide implies a mid-high single-digit decline in 1H, before mid-teens

growth in 2H. While this recovery is steeper and more 2H weighted than our original

estimates, overall it is now known and removes an overhang from the stock.

Execution now the key, however appears BAU — Looking at the remediation plan,

surprisingly it seems the majority of the actions appear relatively straightforward.

We estimate BXB purchases pallets, rolls out new service centres and transitions

SubCo's as part of BAU operations regularly. While risks relating to uncontrollable

spot freight rates (should resolve after purchasing pallets), LFL demand spike (soft

consumer) and winning back SME customers (largely immaterial ~$10M exposure)

appear manageable.

n

Buy

Price (20 Aug 26 16:00)

Target price

from A$22.80

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

Implications — Following the result, we make largely immaterial revisions to our

FY27/28 EBIT. As a result our TP reduces only modestly to $22.75 p/share, and we

remain Buy rated.

Samuel Seow, CFA AC

2025A

2026A

2027E

2028E

2029E

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