Updating JPM US E-Comm Model: Projecting +HSD% US E-Commerce Growth in 2026 & Continued Share Gains; Prime Day Shift Weighs on 3Q Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

20 August 2026

Internet

Updating JPM US E-Comm Model: Projecting +HSD%

US E-Commerce Growth in 2026 & Continued Share

Gains; Prime Day Shift Weighs on 3Q Outlook

We’re updating our US e-commerce model following the release of 2Q spending

data from the Department of Commerce. 2Q US e-commerce sales growth

accelerated to +12.4% Y/Y (up from +9.3% in 1Q), we believe likely supported by

the shift of Prime Day into 2Q & strong consumer demand despite mixed consumer

sentiment. US e-commerce penetration increased Y/Y for the 14th consecutive

quarter in 2Q, up +140bps Y/Y to 23.3% of Adj. Retail Sales, representing the

largest Y/Y share shift toward online commerce in 3+ years. We expect continued

US e-commerce Y/Y share gains in 2026, supported by deeper penetration across

large, under-penetrated categories such as CPG (including Grocery), Apparel &

Accessories, & Furniture, Appliances, & Equipment. We project US e-commerce

growth of +6.6% Y/Y in 3Q & +9.7% in 2026 (vs. +5.4% Y/Y in 2025), & we

attribute the meaningful 3Q sequential growth deceleration to the shift of Prime

Day, which we estimate represents ~$7B of AMZN revenue & greater broader ecommerce industry spend. We model US e-comm penetration of 22.4% in 3Q

(+5bps Y/Y) & 23.7% in 2026 (+80bps Y/Y).

AMZN’s (Anmuth) Retail business outpaced the broader e-commerce market

in 2Q, with AMZN global 1P growth of +15% FXN Y/Y (vs. +9% FXN in 1Q)

& global 3P accelerating to +16% FXN Y/Y (vs. +12% FXN in 1Q). 2Q unit

growth accelerated +200bps to +17%. Essentials continue to drive higher

frequency, basket size, and spend, & now comprise ~40% of units sold

(+700bps vs. ~33% exiting 2025). We estimate AMZN’s share of US ecommerce increased +130bps Y/Y to ~48% in 2Q, and we believe Amazon

remains well-positioned as the leader in e-commerce. We project AMZN

US GMV (ex-Physical Stores) growth of +2% Y/Y in 3Q & +9% Y/Y in 2026,

w/3Q deceleration reflecting the shift of Prime Day. We model AMZN’s share

of US e-commerce reaching 45.9% in 3Q (-220ps Y/Y) & 47.0% in 2026 (35bps Y/Y). We continue to believe US e-commerce penetration of Adj.

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