Northern Star Resources Ltd.: Questions for management

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 August 2026

Northern Star Resources Ltd.

Questions for management

Neutral

NST.AX, NST AU

Price (20 Aug 26):A$23.94

Price Target (Jun-27):A$22.30

KCGM ramp / FY27 shape: FY27 KCGM guidance is 550–650koz, with the

midpoint 6% below BBG consensus, but the top end 2% above. What

specifically needs to go right to deliver the 650koz top end — throughput,

availability, grade, recovery or Stage II timing? How should we think about the

quarterly shape through FY27, particularly around the Sep tie-in and early

ramp? What operating milestones would give you confidence that KCGM is

tracking towards the upper half of guidance?

KCGM throughput / medium-term ramp: You have reiterated a ~2-year

ramp towards 27Mtpa, but have not provided FY28/29 throughput guidance.

What needs to be demonstrated before you are comfortable reinstating a

medium-term throughput profile? Is the prior ~23/25/27Mtpa trajectory still

directionally reasonable, or should we assume the ramp has shifted right?

KCGM recovery / Stage II: Stage II is expected late 1H27 and should add

~1–2ppt recovery. What recovery should we assume before Stage II is

commissioned, particularly with lower-grade stockpile feed? How quickly

should the recovery uplift be realised after Stage II, and what are the main

technical risks to achieving the 1–2ppt improvement?

KCGM feed mix: How should we think about the mix of primary ore, UG ore

and low-grade stockpiles through FY27/28? How much high-grade stockpile

material is available to support the ramp, and does the feed mix become more

or less favourable as throughput rises?

KCGM underground: FY27 UG ore guidance is 3.5-4.0Mt, with the longerterm aspiration still ~8Mtpa. What are the key development and infrastructure

milestones required to reach 8Mtpa? How should we think about the timing of

the step-up and the required capital beyond FY27?

Fimiston South / Golden Pike: FY27 includes 60-65Mt of material

movement at KCGM. How long should we expect this level of waste

movement to continue? When does Golden Pike/Fimiston South start

contributing meaningfully higher-grade ore, and how important is that to the

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