European Luxury Goods: Swiss watch exports: Resilient trend led by the US while Asia decelerated

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

20 August 2026

European Luxury Goods

Swiss watch exports: Resilient trend led by the US while

Asia decelerated

Total Swiss watch exports in July were +10%, sustaining last month’s

momentum (+11%) despite comps 13pp tougher. There was no impact from

trading days in the month as they were the same YoY. By market, the strong

momentum was led mainly by the US, which accelerated to +26.5% vs +13% last

month (Q2 -29%), despite comps 63pp tougher as last year’s July exports to the US

(+45% vs Jun’25 -18%) were affected by a highly uncertain trade environment and

stock build-ups. On a two-year basis, US exports were +83% vs -7% last month.

Among other key markets, exports to France remained high, +105% in line with

June +104%, driven by re-export dynamics to other destinations. Exports to

Germany improved to +12% (vs May -11%) on comps 20pp easier, while the UK

slowed slightly to +9.5% (vs June +12%) despite similar comps and Italy remained

soft at -21% (vs June -21%) despite comps 9pp easier. Overall, exports to Europe

were +11.5% in July, broadly in line with +12% in June, on comps 170bps easier.

In Asia, exports to China remained volatile and decelerated to -18.5% from June

-16.5% despite comps 13pp easier; Hong Kong exports eased to +0.5% (vs June

+7%) on comps 15pp tougher; and Japan exports decelerated to -4% (vs June

+9%) despite similar comps. By price point, trends were resilient at the higher end.

Watches in the higher-priced bracket (>SF3,000) were +12%, just a tad below

+14% last month (Q2 average ‘flat’) on comps 19pp tougher. Watches in the

SF500-3,000 bracket were -4% vs June -5% on comps 16pp easier. Watches in the

SF200-500 bracket were +26%, after a steep acceleration to +54% last month and

comps 31pp tougher, and at the lower end, watches <SF200 slowed to +5% vs.

+10% last month.

European Luxury & Sporting Goods

Chiara Battistini AC

(39-02) 8895-2700

J.P. Morgan Securities plc/ J.P. Morgan Securities

(Asia Pacific) Limited

Wendy Liu

(44-20) 3493-9733

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Apurva Vishwaraj

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Victoria Saden

(44-20) 3493-0435

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Specialist Sales contact details:

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