Lowe‘s Companies Inc. (LOW.N): EPS Recap – Guidance Cut De-Risks Year; Rates Are Still What Matters for 2027

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20 Aug 2026 03:00:00 ET │ 14 pages

Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW.N)

EPS Recap – Guidance Cut De-Risks Year; Rates Are Still What Matters

for 2027

CITI'S TAKE

LOW 2Q results garnered a positive reaction in shares—our estimates come

down slightly for lower sales growth in 2026 (and we took a modest cut to

2027), but 2026 is essentially "de-risked" now. The thesis of LOW trailing

HD on SSS has largely played out. The focus now shifts to the overall

housing/macro/rates backdrop—the key driver of upside for both stocks. In

our view, LOW has work to do on improving its share gain story, helping

outline the margin path, and explaining the next chapters for

growth/integration at FBM/ADG (all key focuses for the analyst day in

December). Stock-specific, we reiterate the Buy as a top-down call to lean

into the weakness with a multi-year view home improvement demand has

bottomed. We slightly lower our TP to $260 (from $267) based on an

unchanged 20x our lowered FY27 EPS.

Key Takes from the Print/1x1 IR Callback — 1) Guide Fairly De-Risked: Mgmt noted

they are still seeing good momentum in Pro, online, and home service. The decision

to lower the guide reflects a continuation of the persistent DIY pressure and weaker

trends in new residential constructions, which dampens FBM/ADG top-line

expectations vs. prior $8B in sales contribution in 2026. 2) QTD SSS Commentary:

Mgmt reiterated that they are on a good trajectory as they turn to 3Q. 3)

Pricing: Mgmt cited several retailers took significant action in a handful of

categories to lower pricing in July driven by tariff refunds, but they still think the

industry is rational. 4) Tariff Refunds: The ~$80M tariff refund in 2Q is a smaller

portion of what mgmt expects to receive overall in tariff refunds. The incremental

tariff refunds will be reinvested into share gain tactics with disciplined margins. 5)

2H Gross Margins: 2H gross margins embed intensifying pressure from

fuel/transportation (mostly due to FIFO accounting). FBM and ADG are also

incremental headwinds to margins given weaker trends. Mgmt expects 3Q GM to

decline more than 4Q y/y. 6) SG&A Puts/Takes: Mgmt called out incremental

…