Full Truck Alliance Co. (YMM): NDR highlights: Resilient transaction service growth amid softer volume outlook; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

20 August 2026 | 2:01PM HKT

Full Truck Alliance Co. (YMM): NDR highlights: Resilient transaction

service growth amid softer volume outlook; Buy

We hosted Full Truck Alliance’s Investor Relations team on Aug 20 post 2Q26 results.

Key investor focuses/topics discussed include:

Ronald Keung, CFA

1) Order volume growth outlook, where management commented that the softer

2H outlook mainly reflects continued macro headwinds and disruption from extreme

weather, which weighed on road freight demand in July and August. Management

notes a more favorable comparison base into 4Q (given its ecosystem clean-up

started from 4Q25), which may support yoy recovery in order growth from 4Q, while

continued online penetration underpins its positive medium-to-long-term outlook

(with full truckload order volume growth that outpaced overall order volume growth

in 2Q).

Steve Qiu

+852-2978-0856 |

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Damian Xie

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Iris Xiao

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

2) Balance between transaction monetization and high quality growth, where

transaction services revenue growth will remain primarily driven by commission

penetration (94.7% in 2Q) and order volume growth in the near term, before

gradually shifting toward a greater contribution from take rate expansion (from 2%

and average commission per order of Rmb27.2 in 2Q). The company will deploy

targeted shipper/driver incentives to improve user acquisition, driver engagement

and fulfillment quality, while pursuing gradual take rate increases with a long term

target of 3% (unchanged).

3) Contribution from freight brokerage (Manyunbao) despite ongoing

adjustments, where management has observed a more accommodating regulatory

environment YTD. Given the business’s close synergy with freight matching (most

invoicing shippers also use the platform to find trucks as part of a one-stop shipping

solution), the company will continue operating through a primarily self-operated

model supplemented by a third-party aggregator model, while retaining a cautious

view on this service offering given limited policy visibility beyond FY26.

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