FX Chart Alert

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Research

19 August 2026

FX Chart Alert

Foreign Exchange - EMEA/Japan

EUR sees largest ever portfolio inflows in June

Overseas investors buy EUR200bn of debt and EUR57bn of equities

Research Analysts

Global FX Strategy

Dominic Bunning - NIplc

Fig. 1: Record portfolio inflows into the euro area in June, on a nominal basis and as a percent of % of GDP

• June’s balance of payments data showed the largest

ever portfolio inflows into the euro area, with a net

inflow of EUR204.7bn (c.1.3% of GDP).

• The breakdown showed strong demand for regional

assets from overseas investors, especially debt.

Foreign inflows totalled EUR201bn into debt

instruments and EUR57bn into equities. This is

particularly encouraging at a time when government

debt dynamics are becoming a greater concern for

many investors. In aggregate, the euro area should

not face the same concerns over fiscal sustainability

as some other DM economies, in our view. However,

it now offers much higher yields than in previous

years, making the overall risk/reward backdrop more

attractive, suggesting inflows can be sustained.

• Domestic investors continued to buy overseas debt

(EUR54bn), but repatriated a very modest amount

back into local equity markets (similar to May). This

continues a similar theme seen over ther last few

years of steady asset accumulation, concentrated in

debt assets.

• We continued to see scope for EUR outperformance

and remain long EUR/CAD (opened 29 July at

1.6060, with a target of 1.6550 by end-September).

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura