Aegon: 1H26 First Take: strong results ahead of consensus, with higher SBB, offset by CFO departure

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

20 August 2026

Aegon

1H26 First Take: strong results ahead of consensus,

with higher SBB, offset by CFO departure

Overweight

AEGN.AS, AGN NA

Price (19 Aug 26):€8.03

Price Target (Dec-27):€9.45

Our Take: We think this is a strong set of results from Aegon overall, with operating

profit and OCG beats relative to consensus, supported also by an increase in the

2H26 share buyback. This is tempered by negative below-the-line mortality and

policyholder behaviour-related assumption changes, although overall PBT is close

to our estimates. Also, the announced departure of Duncan Russell, whom we have

viewed as a strong Group CFO, creates some uncertainty in the near term. Overall,

we expect consensus to upgrade EPS forecasts due to the strong IFRS results. We

expect a net positive reaction in the shares, although Aegon has already performed

strongly into this event.

European Insurance

Nadia Claressa

Noteworthy Areas:

1) IFRS operating results were 7% above consensus and 8% above JPMe.

Note that, from 1H26, Aegon has started to exclude the UK from its operating

results following the announced sale of the Aegon UK business. Relative to

JPMe, the beat was driven by higher results in International and Asset

Management, partially offset by higher costs in Holding and other activities.

The Americas result was broadly flat vs JPMe. Americas closing CSM was

overall in line with our forecasts. In International, the beat was mainly driven

by higher CSM release, while the better Asset Management result was driven

by a combination of a better cost-income ratio and higher AuM.

2) Operational capital generation (OCG) 11% higher than consensus and

10% higher than JPMe. It appears that this has been supported by €34mn of

one-off positive items. Excluding the one-off impact, the beat would be ~2%

above consensus (and in line with JPMe).

3) US RBC ratio 7ppts below consensus and 4ppts below JPMe. Aegon

reported a US RBC ratio of 420%. The lower-than-expected ratio looks to be

driven by negative market impact as well as a one-off negative impact from

assumption changes and model updates vs JPMe.

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