e.l.f. Beauty Inc: Updating Forward Year Estimates and Dec-27 PT

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

19 August 2026

e.l.f. Beauty Inc

Overweight

ELF, ELF US

Price (18 Aug 26):$92.51

Updating Forward Year Estimates and Dec-27 PT

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$106.00

Prior (Dec-27):$111.00

We are updating our estimates for e.l.f. Beauty (ELF, OW-rated) to better reflect

our expectations for forward years.

Beverage, Household & Personal

Care Products

Our Model Updates & Dec ‘27 PT. To that end, we are reiterating our prior

estimates of net sales growth of +20.4% and adj EPS of $3.79 for FY27 and

raising our expectations for net sales growth for FY28 to +7.8% (from +6.4%).

While we remain bullish on the top line for FY27 and FY28, we are slightly

lowering our top line projection by -30 bps to +7.3% for FY29. On the negative

side, the positive view on top line is more than offset by a more conservative

gross margin as we account for the price reinvestments. As a result, we lowered

our adj EPS projection by $0.34 to $3.94 for FY28 and by $0.38 to $4.28 for

FY29. Net-net, our Dec ‘27 price target moves to $106 (from $111 before) and

is based on a 25.1x P/E multiple (ELF’s own 27E multiple), which compares

to a beauty average of 23.2x (27E).

Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC

ELF’s U.S. Consumption Ahead of Peers/Category; $ Share Down Y/Y

but Volume Share Up on Tracked Channel Data. Circana tracked channel

data shows that ELF’s Y/Y consumption for its core brands has improved from

the trough and was up +12.0% L4WE 8/09 ahead of peers and color cosmetics

category. Looking at some of the categories, it is worth noting that core e.l.f.

Color Cosmetics $ Takeaway inflected (up +2.2% in L4WE 8/09). As it relates

to market share, ELF lost -10 bps of value share but gained +40 bps of volume

share (more important in our view for the health of the brand) in L4WE 8/09

as the company reinvested using promotions and price reductions – see charts

below for more details.

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

(1-212) 622-6735

Shovana Chowdhury

(1-212) 270-2184

Drew Levine, CFA

(1-212) 622-0374

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Revenue - 28E ($ mn)

Adj. EPS - 28E ($)

Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) - 28E

Adj. EBITDA - 28E ($ mn)